Riyadh – March 9, 2026
Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, issued a stark warning on Monday: as long as the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran persists, there will be no security in the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil chokepoint responsible for roughly 20% of global seaborne crude and one-third of LNG trade.
In a post written in Arabic on X, Larijani declared: “It is highly unlikely that any security can be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz amid the flames of war ignited by the United States and Israel in the region. If this situation is by design from parties not far from supporting and fueling this war, then security will not return.”
His statement came amid mounting evidence that commercial shipping through the strait has virtually collapsed. Maritime tracking firms (Kpler, Vortexa, Lloyd’s List) report tanker transits down 90% since late February 2026, with dozens of vessels idling in the Gulf of Oman or rerouting around Africa at massive additional cost.
Europe Sounds Alarm: “Recession Shock” Looms
Simultaneously, the European Commission warned that the prolonged Middle East conflict now poses a direct threat to the global economy. European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis stated:
“If the war continues indefinitely, with disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf, it could ultimately lead to a major recessionary shock hitting both the global and European economies.”
The European Union’s concerns center on:
- Skyrocketing energy prices (Brent briefly crossed $93/bbl on March 9).
- Supply-chain chaos from rerouted shipping.
- Secondary inflation pressures already straining households.
French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking during a visit to Cyprus, announced that Paris is preparing a “purely defensive” maritime mission with allies to secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz “after the hottest phase of the conflict ends.” France will deploy two frigates to the Red Sea as part of an existing EU mission launched in 2024.
Regional & Global Fallout
- Gulf producers under pressure: Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq have already declared force majeure on crude exports due to blocked tanker access. Analysts expect Saudi Arabia and the UAE to follow within days as onshore and floating storage reaches capacity.
- Shipping attacks: At least 10 commercial vessels have been targeted in or near the strait since Iran effectively closed the passage in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began February 28.
- Duration estimates: Israeli military sources told Yedioth Ahronoth the campaign could last “at least one month.” President Trump has hinted at “weeks” to achieve objectives, while U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned strikes on Tehran “will intensify.” Iran’s IRGC, meanwhile, claims readiness to fight for “six months.”
The Strait of Hormuz: The World’s Most Dangerous Flashpoint
The 21-mile-wide strait remains the single most important artery for global energy. Any sustained closure—or even perceived risk—triggers immediate panic buying, insurance war-risk premiums, and rerouting that adds 10–14 days and millions of dollars per voyage.
Larijani’s warning is clear: until military operations cease, commercial shipping will remain paralyzed, energy markets will stay volatile, and the risk of miscalculation will continue to rise.
Europe’s call for de-escalation and Macron’s proposed defensive mission reflect growing international alarm that the U.S.-Israeli campaign—initially aimed at degrading Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities—may now be dragging the global economy toward a dangerous tipping point.
As one Gulf-based energy trader told Reuters anonymously: “There is no security in Hormuz while the war continues—and right now, the war shows no sign of stopping.”
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